In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. 2008; Subash et al. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. pieces of evidence indicated that a detailed study of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature are very important for agricultural/urban planning (mehmet, 2015 ), flood frequency analysis, water resources assessments, assessing and understanding climate change impacts, and other environmental assessments (alemu, 2019; Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. 2015). Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. The most common types of soil are Cambisols (locally called Abolse), Vertisols (Merere), Andosols, Fluvisols and Regosols. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. 2015). We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms theITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone.The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. 2014). The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. 2015). Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). 2016). Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . 5.3.1. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. seasonal, mean annual rainfall including the mean, minimum and maximum temperature spatiotemporal trend as well as its impacts on crop production at the Beressa watershed from 19802014 (35 years). Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. (2011) and Manandhar et al. ; ed. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. The details of these seven stations are presented in Table2. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. 2016). According to Al-Bakri et al. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Is it warming or cooling? 2015). Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. The study area encompasses six . Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. The prolonged climatic variability in the 21st century the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested is. 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